Politics Is Like A Box of Chocolates...

... you never know when you're gonna get a moron.

The Forrest Gump of the GOP, Sarah Palin had yet another speaking engagement at a California State University campus.  One in which credentials were not distributed to the school newspaper's student reporters.  And one in which an open mic caught many critical statements of Palin, allegedly uttered by the reporters who were present and completely dumbfounded by The Sarah Palin Experience.

“Now I know the dumbness doesn’t just come from sound bites.”

“She didn’t finish a statement.”

“I don’t know how you’re gonna make a story out of that.” “Well, that’s the story.”

“Did she even make a point?”

You'd think by now, realizing the success she had in her VP nomination acceptance speech, she would have realized she should hire a speech writer.  Maybe she could use the same person who writes her Facebook entries.  Or her book ghostwriter.

In any case... RUN, SARAH! RUN!

(Via GottaLaff)

Quote of the Day

"I worry, and I told President Obama this, that it's reached the point that if he had nominated Moses the Law Giver some would have said, 'We can't have him because among other things, he hasn't produced a birth certificate.'"

~ Sen. Patrick Leahy on Face The Nation, regarding the Supreme Court nomination of Elena Kagan.

False Belief -- in Oppression

Posted by JHW22

There are good and bad things about Facebook. The good is finding old friends, following amazing sources of information and just plain ol' goofing off. The bad includes wasting time, reading stupid comments from idiotic strangers and the worst: finding out things about your relatives that you wish you never knew. The latter has been an on-going problem for me since my elders joined Facebook and I have learned that aunts and uncles I always respected and considered intelligent, are in fact, tea baggers. Yes, I admit I have tea baggers in the family. What's a girl to do? I can ignore or I can address things head on. For the most part I ignore.

But when my aunt posted Red Skelton's interpretation of the Pledge of Allegiance -- accompanied by a horrible quotation, which I will cite, meant to incite the oppressed Christians of America -- I couldn't keep my mouth shut or my fingers still. What follows may perhaps be the end of a pleasant aunt and niece relationship. But as an atheist-American, I felt my personal values and the principles I hope to raise my son respecting must be defended -- especially in light of the meaning behind the Pledge and its meaning for all Americans to stand together and respect who each one is as a member of a nation who shares many beliefs and shouldn't pretend that one belief isn't held to a higher level of respect than the others.

Red Skelton interpreting the Pledge and what each word means. It’s quite moving actually. In fact, it further motivates me to ensure that more Americans actually have access to the same liberties and unity that the rest of us share. Pretty powerful stuff. Then he goes and ruins it by suggesting that “under God” should stay in the pledge and wouldn’t it be a shame to remove it and all it stands for. You can watch if you want, but I think I made a pretty fair summary.

And this is what I wrote to my aunt in response to her posting of the video:

I wish we applied those liberties and freedoms to all Americans -- like gay and lesbian Americans. It would be nice if we applied our patriotism to them.

I also think it's interesting that "Separation of Charch [sic] and State ,was never ment [sic] to Exclued [sic] ,But has been used in schools to undermind [sic] the teachings of Parents, and clouding what is right and wrong who can say what is right or wrong ,if we are never Tought [sic]" (well, heck that entire quote should be a [sic]) is meant to imply that those who believe in God are somehow jipped yet people who don't believe in God just have to accept that God is in the national pledge. God is spoken in schools every day in this country. How is that exclusion? Prayer IS allowed in schools. Any student or staff member CAN pray in school. All that the courts have ever said is that one prayer can't be said for all students. And really, isn't THAT inclusive? Perhaps you can't understand that as an atheist or a Jew or a Muslim that being required to say or hear a prayer of Christians is NOT a part of that UNITED and LIBERTY part of the pledge and THAT is why schools do not hold a daily prayer. Your God's name is spoken in schools. Please don't act as if YOUR beliefs are infringed upon.

I also find it insulting that the above quote from the Skelton page implies that only those who think "under God" has an impact on the teaching of right and wrong. Or that only those who believe in prayer teach what is right and wrong.

No, to me, it would NOT be a shame to remove "under God" from the pledge. To me it would take us back to the original version that actually included by not designating. It didn't say "under a non-existent entity". Only by putting the words in there did anyone even think that removing them would be excluding. Until then, Americans' views were represented. Now, only those who believe in God’s are. But that's OK: atheists aren't hurt by hearing the words, right? It doesn't hurt to hear words. So then why would it hurt to not hear them? Why is unification and liberty applicable to those who FEEL oppressed who never see that they are in fact getting what they desire and can't imagine how letting go would be more true to the concept of that liberty and unification they claim to hold so dear?

Delete this comment if you want. And delete me if you want. But please, realize that there are two sides to this issue and your side is the one most upheld and yet most manipulated to make you feel outrage over something that isn't real. Christians are not oppressed each day that "under God" is said in our public schools. Christian children are not oppressed when they get public support of their beliefs. Atheist children learn right from wrong.

My favorite reverend, Reverend Welton Gaddy, said this:

"Well, it also seems a little bit religious hypocritical because —religiously hypocritical—because in most traditions, authentic prayer and meditation are acts that are done alone for the spiritual communication and meditation of the one involved. And all of the protests that we‘re seeing today is not in favor of prayer as defined in historic religious traditions, it‘s about public prayer.

And I have always argued, whether you‘re talking about the National Day of Prayer, or whether you‘re talking about enforcing prayer in school, the issue is not prayer, the issue is proselytization, doing something in public that is supposed to be a private act, that is convincing others do it exactly the way you do, or feel guilty about it or move to the periphery of society."

Obama Can't Close The Deal

... Or at least that's what anti-Obama voices would like you to believe. Rachel Maddow gives us a comprehensive list.

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Must Reads

Glenn Thrush: Quick Decision to Sack Stanley McChrystal

Bob Cesca: A New Level of Stupid

The Rude Pundit: Release The Petraeus

President Obama's Weekly Address - June 26, 2010

Finishing the Job on Wall Street Reform

Time For Jindal to Shut His Cakehole

So we've been hearing Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal whine and moan about the federal response to the oil spill crisis in the Gulf. But what has Bobby been doing?

Gov. Bobby Jindal's message has been loud and clear, using language such as "We will only be winning this war when we're actually deploying every resource," "They (the federal government) can provide more resources" and "It's clear the resources needed to protect our coast are still not here."

But nearly two months after the governor requested - and the Department of Defense approved the use of 6,000 Louisiana National Guard troops - only a fraction - 1,053 - have actually been deployed by Jindal to fight the spill.

Governor Skippy really needs to work on governing more and accusing less. Soooo not ready for prime time.

UPDATE (10:10pm): Well now we know why Jindal has only deployed one sixth of National Guard troops available to him for help with the Gulf clean up. He was too busy authoring and declaring a Statewide Day of Prayer.

JINDAL 2012!

Quote of the Day

Who better to represent the Republican Party against the first African-American presidential incumbent in the entire history of civilization? Here we have an overweight, southern-fried, tobacco-funded, lobbyist superfan of the Confederacy with a history of racially questionable ideas and connections who can barely string together a comprehensible sentence. What better way to put a face and voice to the increasingly regional, homogenized, sophophobic GOP than to nominate Haley Barbour for president.

~ Bob Cesca on the numerous idiotic statements made by Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour

GOP Laughingstocks

Seriously? This is what passes for a legitimate political party in present day America? And people fall for it!

Three months after health care reform was first rolled out, House Republicans are claiming that the legislation has not lived up to promises.

In a report issued on Wednesday, House Minority Leader John Boehner said Obama's health care reform legislation has already failed on multiple fronts.

Yes, because as we all know, Medicare failed in its first 90 days as well.

McChrystal Relieved of Command

President Obama to call upon General David Petraeus to replace him.

UPDATE: Video.

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Wingnut In Hollywood

Question: When did Jon Voight become some political beacon to whom we should listen? This is one step removed from Victoria Jackson.

You have brought to Arizona a civil war, once again defending the criminals and illegals, creating a meltdown for good, loyal, law-abiding citizens. Your destruction of this country may never be remedied, and we may never recover. I pray to God you stop, and I hope the people in this great country realize your agenda is not for the betterment of mankind, but for the betterment of your politics.

Uh... yeah, because we all know it was President Obama who made up some crazy ass, racial profiling immigration laws in Arizona.

Perhaps Jon Voight is too blinded with rage to realize that the current administration has been much tougher on immigration laws than the previous one.

Michael Steele is An Idiot

Steele thinks George Bush created jobs.



Facts:

"Bush’s job data 'shows the worst track record for job creation since the government began keeping records.' A paltry 1 million jobs were created under Bush; that’s 'a fraction of the 23 million jobs created under President Bill Clinton’s administration.' Even President Carter — who conservatives love to cite as the paragon of poor economic management, and who only served one term — created 10.5 million jobs. That’s more than three times as many jobs as Bush, in half as much time. More jobs may be created under Obama in this year alone than in Bush's eight."

I just love the "Well, I'll get numbers too and we'll compare" line. Like that'll ever happen. I wonder if Steele goes home at night and factchecks himself and then says, "Shit, I got that one wrong too." 

(H/T Think Progress)

Music Break! Count Basie

Haven't done one of these in a long time.

Olbermann Advice to Obama: Don't Accept McChrystal's Resignation

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

While I understand Olbermann's logic, unfortunately logic is most likely the last thing that will be used in the political and media spin of this situation.

My take:

Either A) President Obama will accept the resignation and the "Obama doesn't listen to his commanders" meme will ring for days, or B) the President will shelve McChrystal's resignation and the "weak leadership" meme will echo throughout Wingnuttia. "Obama can't even control his generals!" A no-win situation. Thanks, Stanley.

A Firing Offense

"I say this as someone who admired and respects Stan McChrystal enormously. The country doesn't know how much good he's done. But this is a firing offense," said Eliot A. Cohen, who served as a counselor to Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice in the latter days of the Bush administration.

Cohen was referring to McChrystal's criticism of President Obama and the administration in the latest Rolling Stone Magazine.

The Bush administration never worried about such things as getting another commander up to speed when it would regularly fire generals in disagreement with their "vision" of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Nor were they ever criticized as being against the troops when said commanders were relieved of their duties and forced into early retirement. I have a funny feeling, however, that this time it's going to be viewed differently. Call me crazy.

ADDING... McChrystal has offered his resignation in the wake of his comments.

ALSO ADDING... I was stunned when I read this from the previously linked article quoting Cohen:

The first victim in the controversy was the Pentagon's PR official who set up the interview with McChrystal. NBC reported that Duncan Boothby, a civilian member of the general's public relations team, was "asked to resign."

Why in the hell does the McChrystal have a public relations team? There is absolutely no reason for anyone in military of the United States, nor the military itself to need public relations for anything. (Recruitment is a separate issue.)

And as far as Rush Limbaugh leading the righties on how "honorable" McChrystal is, let's not forget that he was a key figure in the Pat Tillman coverup.

Is Rahm Done?

If true, I can only view this as good news.

Washington insiders are saying that the White House chief of staff will quit his post within six to eight months because he is frustrated by Obama's closest advisers' idealism and their unwillingness to push through legislation. "Friends say he is also worried about burnout and losing touch with his young family due to the pressure of one of the most high profile jobs in U.S. politics," the London Telegraph reported.

Wildfires in Arizona

Uh... damned illegal aliens! This is Obama's fault!  I just know it!

Happy Father's Day...

...to all you father's out there from a first time dad. Now I know what it feels like.

And All The Kings Men... (Part 2)

posted by Armadillo Joe

While we're talking about Hollywood-style worst-case scenarios, I thought the cartoon to the right was pretty funny.

I don't think this worst-case scenario is quite as funny:

How the ultimate BP Gulf disaster could kill millions

Nor this one:

Worst case scenario unfolding in Gulf: Oil leaking from seabed, methane building up

Nor this one:

Toxic Oil Spill Rains Warned Could Destroy the Eastern half of the US

Nor this one:

Is Using Dispersants on the BP Gulf Oil Spill Fighting Pollution with Pollution?

Ever see the movie "Deep Impact"? Remember the scene on the fishing pier when Tea Leoni (playing a TV news reporter) challenges James Cromwell (playing a seemingly disgraced White House official) because she thinks she's uncovered a presidential affair and he's the unwitting fall guy who resigned claiming to want to spend more time with his family? Only later does the audience find out that there was no affair and that he resigned because the entire White House knew the comet was going to destroy the earth and he really did want to spend time with his family before armageddon, the "affair" was just a ruse to cover his departure and throw the press and public off the scent of the impending global disaster.

Well, it seems Hollywood can't make shit up that won't eventually happen in real life. No, a comet isn't barreling toward the earth and no White House officials are pretending to resign to hide a larger crisis. But I'm not convinced that Tony Hayward's relaxing trip to a fancy yacht race was as much a tone-deaf PR blunder by a narcissistic gazillionaire as a rich man's indulgence in a private pleasure for possibly the last time. Because jailtime is in his future? Maybe.

But maybe something worse. But then I'd just be speculating.

I ♥ Joe Biden

He may stick his foot in his mouth on a regular basis, but this response is a big, fucking deal. And I can't imagine that most of the country doesn't feel the same way.



There's something about Joe Biden that makes me feel he's more than just a politician. He gaffes because he cares. He wears his heart on his sleeve and comes across as a regular guy.

(H/T Bob Cesca)

And All The Kings Men... (Part 1 and a half)

posted by Armadillo Joe

Unexpectedly, I got some hits from my post yesterday about the Gulf disaster. One of them was a link from over at Political Carnival and it drove some traffic (and hence scrutiny) that I wasn't expecting with my quick and dirty original post. The whole episode over the last 12 hours has revealed to me that I wasn't as careful as I ought to have been and I want to make some clarifications here before I proceed with the rest of my case about why the American public and our leaders should all be much more concerned than they currently appear to be.

Two things:

1. I am not a petroleum expert, a geologist, an engineer or scientist. I am a guy who took some geology classes in college for his science credit, who reads a lot now, and who has enough of an understanding of the principles involved to roughly follow the discourse when the big brains start hashing out the particulars of this catastrophe. Anyone who links to the posts I'll be continuing over the next several days should understand that I am what you could consider a knowledgeable layman -- definitely not any manner of expert -- trying to broaden his own understanding of what is happening so that it can better inform his conclusions, and then sharing to the best of his ability those conclusions.

2. The items getting the biggest reaction yesterday were #3 and #4, not surprisingly. They were the most Hollywood disaster-movie apocalyptic. Allow me to clarify a little on each:

#3 - the Blow Out Preventer (BOP) dropping into the reservoir.

Not impossible, but very nearly so. I mischaracterized what could happen to the BOP, flat out. The oil reservoir is not a nougaty chamber of oily goodness with a thin crust of rock over it, through which the BOP could punch a hole like a spoon cracking the chocolate shell on a scoop of ice cream and sinking like a car crashing through the ice on a frozen lake.

The oil is in a pocket of sand (or a layer of sandstone) between layers of rock miles below the seabed and the most that could plausibly happen is that the compromised rock surrounding the bore hole, which is eroding fast as sand-saturated oil blasts & scrapes away at its structural integrity, would subside under pressure from the extremely heavy BOP (450 tons) resting on it in a point-load and also deflecting the concrete connection to the seabed to the breaking point by swaying in the ocean currents because the BOP is not only heavy, but also tall (see the picture). All that weight concentrates down to a single point at the bottom and the height makes it something of a sail and subject to lateral pressure from ocean currents. Should the surrounding seabed fail, the result would be a jagged column of broken rock with bits of BOP and drilling equipment stacked up inside it while oil squeezes up through the jumbled mess under pressure.

In other words, the image of the BOP crashing through the sea floor and fading into blackness in a lake of undersea oil like Leo DiCaprio at the end of Titanic is incorrect and I was wrong to leave that impression.

#4 - the oil "tsunami" -

Again, the word choice is rather poor. No 20-foot high black wave of oil is going to wash ashore across the Gulf; that's Hollywood disaster-movie stuff and that isn't a credible threat. 

What is a credible threat -- even if it a remote one -- is the layer containing the oil (essentially sand) compressing just enough as the reservoir pressure drops and the miles of rock above the sand layer that exert the very same pressure that turns any opening into a gusher continue to press downward even as the oil escapes and internal pressure drops. If it drops too far, the layers of rock can subside; afterall, the oil and sand compressed in place was enough to hold layers of rock apart.

In normal drilling situations, drilling fluid or "mud" is used not only to exert downward pressure in the drill string to control the upward flow of oil under pressure into the line, but also to maintain pressure in the reservoir and ensure that oil can continue to flow out. This is what pumping oil means. It isn't sucked out like you drink a milkshake through a straw; heavy fluid is pumped in to maintain pressure so the oil will come out on its own. Even the most productive reservoirs only give up about 50% of their available oil before equilibrium makes the necessary pressure too great for any man-made pumping machinery.

Thus, from my layman's rudimentary understanding of geology and drilling technology, it seems the relief wells being drilled in the area serve not only the purpose of lowering the pressure on the runaway gusher so it can be capped (by hitting the original bore from the side and giving the oil some other place to go besides a column of broken rock open to the sea above), but also to give the route for drilling mud to be pumped in to maintain reservoir pressure.

I don't know what kind of rock contains the oil and what manner of rock formation surrounds it. Most times something called lithostatic pressure (essentially, how tightly woven the rock is at a molecular level) holds the whole magilla together and prevents collapse. Also, collapses are more commonly associated with gas drilling because outright explosions and not the mere weight of the strata over a reservoir collapse the rock. And this well had been subject to quite a number of gas pockets. One such pocket may have been the catalyst for this whole calamity.

What I fear could happen, should the rock above subside (for whatever reason) and compress the reservoir layer, is that what is now a narrow column of broken and/or failing rock around the well bore could turn into a wide area of cracked rock as the dome subsides, through which the newly homeless oil will have no option but to suffuse and vent out, uncontrolled, in the form of leaks across a vast swath of the Gulf.

So, not so much a "tsunami" as a hemorrhaging. Again, not likely but not impossible. This guy thinks it might have already happened - Gulf Oil Spill Sea Floor Collapse and Seabed Leaks May Prevent BP From Capping Well.

So, again dear readers new and old, I apologize for the sloppy writing and hope this clears things up a bit.

More to come...

Bachmann In Headlights in the No Spin Zone

Kudos to Bill O'Reilly for truly having a "No Spin Zone" moment with Michele "Crazy Eyes" Bachmann and taking her to task for her idiotic remarks in categorizing President Obama's set up of the BP $20 billion escrow account to help with claims of Gulf coast victims as a"shakedown" and "extortion."



Bachmann keeps repeating that she is worried about who will administer this account. By now, we all know that Ken Feinberg has been chosen for the job, the same Feinberg that took care of payouts for the 9/11 victims. Perhaps Bachmann was too busy mudslinging to hear that bit of information. But if Feinberg was okay with Bachmann previously, why is she worried about it now? Oh, right. We have a Democrat in the White House now. And a Democratic majority in Congress. And in her twisted, feeble thing in her head that constitutes a brain, it's okay if you are a Republican.

Oh, and Michele? It's the "Democratic" Party, and the "Democratic" president, not "Democrat" you twit.

Must Reads

Peter Bregman: Why I Returned My iPad

Gail Collins: Wishing Will Make It So

Christopher Brauchli: The Maligning of BP

Katrina Vanden Heuvel: Where's Dick Cheney on the BP Oil Spill?

Kate Sheppard: Dick Cheney's Last Laugh

President Obama's Weekly Address - June 19, 2010

Republicans Blocking Progress

And All The King's Men... (Part 1)

posted by Armadillo Joe

RESTORED AND UPDATED

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NOTE -- OK, if you're arriving here from the Political Carnival link, I apologize if you tried earlier today with no success. Your author had knocked together a post for the readers here that was imprecise and sloppy in presentation. Not ever really having had much in the way of traffic, I figured I had a few hours (days?) to clarify and hone the content of the original post, not expecting anything like a larger audience to materialize. As the linking and tweeting heated up, I feared the spread of inaccuracies could tar my friend's blog as a source of bad info. I didn't want that and I panicked. Please accept my sincere apologies.

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Hey, Blog-O-Maniacs. Back again to depress the lot of you.

I've been immersed in learning absolutely everything I can about the Gulf Gusher from the Web, from knowledgeable friends, from the news, so I haven't had much time to blog. But I was talking with Broadway Carl this afternoon, this topic came up, and he encouraged me to start posting all that I've learned and concluded.

So, I am. In installments. I think we are watching the greatest disaster to befall the human race in centuries, perhaps ever, and it is a little hard to take in the enormity of this disaster all at once.

Thus, I want to first describe what has happened, what I understand about what went wrong and how, then I want to describe how and why fixing this gusher very likely isn't possible now or perhaps ever because of the complexity of what is happening at the sea bed under the Gulf. And finally I will talk about what I think we will see happen in the coming weeks and months and years and how we can live with what is to come, because what is to come is very, very, very unpleasant.

The Gulf gusher hasn't been stopped or even slowed. It very likely can't be stopped and will probably go on gushing like it is right now, only ever more voluminously, for years. Perhaps decades. BP may very well have triggered environmental armageddon and we will see, for the first time since the Dust Bowl era, environmental refugees as the Gulf states empty of people.

How bad is it? Worse than you could possibly imagine. The criminal conduct begins (not surprisingly) with management.

As most of you know, I am from Texas, so it shouldn't surprise you that my best friend's two brothers are both employed in the petroleum industry. He wrote the following on his Facebook page:

I just had a long talk with my brothers, one of whom works for a company that researches heat transfer inside oil wells, and the other spent a decade mixing concrete and drilling fluids that create the casings for oil wells.

They explained, in detail, what happened, and how, and why the devices designed to prevent what happened failed.

And it is my considered opinion that the person who told the rig operator to keep drilling after they hit a gas pocket three weeks before the explosion should stand before a firing squad.

1) When BP spec'd the well, the purchased a Blow-Off-Preventer with standard shears. There is an option for Super Shears. This becomes important later.

2) BP set a drilling schedule that mimicked a land-based well schedule. The whole purpose of deep-water drilling is to skip over 5,000 feet of rock and be that much closer to the oil at the first cut of the drill.

3) Three weeks before the explosion, Deepwater Horizon hit a gas pocket. Conservative prospectors would have capped the well then and moved on. The order came to keep drilling.

4) Once they were into seabed but not yet into a harder substrate, and with the gas kicks already on record, the decision was made to set a well casing before proceeding into the oil-bearing substrate. This should be considered a bare-minimum precaution. This is the procedure done on land wells that keeps oil from seeping out as it comes to the surface and contaminating groundwater.

5) The casing got fucked up. I'll try to explain. You have a hole dug that's bigger than the pipe you have in it. You lift the pipe a little bit up from the bottom and then you fill the pipe with wet cement. You then pour some other substance into the pipe to push the cement out and make it fill up the gap between the outside of the pipe and the inside of the bore. When this cement sets, it bonds the pipeline to the rock and will keep oil from seeping into the substrates. Only the cement never set. And the fluid they were trying to push it around with was sea-water instead of an appropriately-mixed drilling fluid called kill-mud.

6) RATHER THAN STOP DRILLING TO FIX THE CASING, a BP manager ordered drilling to continue...with known gas pockets in play, with a known failure in the correct casing procedure...they made the choice to continue drilling into paydirt.

7) 6 hours before the explosion, the well took on the pressure of oil being released. The blow-off-preventer was fired. The pipe used to set the casing had been forced up the well under pressure and was now passing through the BOP. Casing pipe is significantly harder than regular oil pipeline. Remember that BP saved themselves $150K by using the cheaper BOP....which failed to cut through the casing pipe.

8) since the cement lining never set, the line from the oil pocket to the surface cannot be trusted. It is essentially a lubricated straw stuck in a high-pressure flow. That's why we can't just drop a big rock on it and call it a day.

In fact, if the BOP had worked correctly, oil would immediately have begun to flow into the sea-bed and could conceivably have ejected the remainder of the line stuck in it, leaving absolutely no control over the oil spilling out.

So...the guy who said "this is how it's going to be" indicating that Deepwater Horizon would keep drilling without successfully securing the liner is, as far as I'm concerned, personally responsible for 11 murders. The corporation that put him in a position to make that decision is equally guilty and oh, yeah, there's the matter of an oil slick that will literally have crossed the Atlantic Ocean by the time they get relief wells drilled and get the flow stopped.

All manner of criminal conduct on the part of BP, certainly, but at the moment it appears to many knowledgeable observers (especially this commenter at the indisposable blogtheoildrum.com) that the window for even so much as a plausible solution, much less possible, is either closing rapidly or has already closed.

The Oil Drum commenter's online handle is Doug R. He makes many points and seems a knowledgeable petroleum industry professional, but the most salient point he makes is that the public doesn't really understand that we're not talking about one leak from the top of a failed well, but many, many leaks from:

1.) breaks throughout the failed machinery of the collapsed oil rig (the failed attempt to cut the top of the Blow Out Preventer (BOP) was to halt the flow into that long line of breaks and leaks, akin to a flat, perforated garden hose six-inches wide and a mile long)

but also from

2.) seams and cracks opening around the wellhead from the blow out damage, which are eroding ever larger from the sand that is suspended in the gushing oil, making the whole spewing mess one gi-normous sand-blaster that will only continue to degrade the condition of the machinery currently restricting the flow from being much, much worse and to degrade the rock that currently holds all that equipment

and also from

3.) leaks and cracks all over the seabed surrounding the BOP from substrate infused with oil leaked under pressure from around the failed well casing and made worse by the appearance that the ceiling of the reservoir around the BOP may be weakening from erosion, eventually leading to the collapse of the seabed under it, at which point the entire BOP (at 450 tons, not a small piece of machinery) would punch an enormous hole in the ocean floor and the current gusher would go from a 150,000 barrel per day "leak" to a "torrent" of unimaginable force and volume as it drops into the cavern of oil below and pulls all the attached machinery with it. We don't have a word for the amount of oil that would be unleashed.

which puts the whole thing at a very real risk for

4.) the entire reservoir ceiling eventually giving way as the reservoir empties and the internal pressure drops, giving rise to the possibility that the entire top of the reservoir cavern could crater under the pressure of a column of water a mile high above it, pushing down. The remaining oil would rush out all at once in one catastrophic tsunami

I have more where that came from. It only gets worse from there. This article at Mother Jonesgives an overview of the whole comment thread. It will scare the shit out of you. It should.

Back soon...

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COMMENTS:

Anonymous said...

First off -- great post! Just one issue...

Your last paragraphs (#3 and #4) makes it sound like you have an incorrect view of oil reserves. You make it sound like there is a cavern of oil in the ground -- and if all the oil was sucked out of it, there would just be this empty space. I do not believe that is correct.

Oil that is in the ground exists in the pores of rocks. So imagine just miles and miles of rock that are soaked with oil. Since it is under so much earth (and in this case water as well), the oil will escape whenever it finds an opening because of the pressure. Thus when a well is drilled, oil will escape. At times, these wells will clog up, and require a procedure called a "Frac" (fracturing) where they force fluid down the pipe with hydraulic pumps and fracture the surrounding rocks to allow more oil to permeate it.

You may have heard of the "Oil Sands" or "Tar Sands" up north as new oil reserves. In these fields, there is sand instead of porous rock.

But all of this is to say that I don't believe #3 and #4 can happen as you explain it -- as there is no cavern -- it's just rock.

June 18, 2010 8:39:00 PM EDT

Armadillo Hussein Joe said...

Thank you for the compliment.

This whole event has been making me sick to even think about and the more I read, the more worried I get. Thank you again for your input, too. I was imprecise in my language in my speed to publish the post.

so, well, yes and no about the cavern. You are correct that I left the wrong impression about the nature of a reservoir by calling it a "cavern." I shouldn't have used that word.

I understand what you mean that oil exists in the pores of rocks, it does, and a reservoir is not a hollow pocket full of liquid that gets sucked out, per se, leaving an empty space behind when drained. It is actually interlocking rock strata and the oil usually exists in the seams between rock layers or infused in the lighter, more porous rock layers themselves. Thus, the rock that contains the oil is of a different density than the rock above it; that's why the oil is contained in the first place and has to be drilled down to.

If the oil isn't replaced by a liquid of comparable density as it is removed from the reservoir, the heavier, more dense rock above it can collapse the pocket. A collapse doesn't look necessarily like the implosion of sinking submarine - it's more like the pancaking of a collapsed parking garage; afterall, the weight of the higher layers of rock (along with natural gas deposits) was enough to put the whole reservoir under pressure in the first place.

So, as for the point load of the BOP causing a collapse of the bore-hole into the reservoir below and opening a much larger hole, I still think it likely. So do others:
http://scienceblogs.com/casaubonsbook/2010/06/worst_case_scenario_on_gulf_sp.php

The whole layer giving way into the reservoir below is less likely, certainly, and I am heartily glad for it. I can't find the link right now, but I followed a comment thread at The Oil Drum a few weeks ago where that was discussed as a possibility and no would rule it out categorically, mostly because we are in uncharted territory for reservoir behavior.

Thank you again for the input and for keeping me honest. More tomorrow

June 18, 2010 9:57:00 PM EDT

chris said...

Excellent piece, Joe. And scary as hell.

June 18, 2010 10:06:00 PM EDT

Anonymous said...

Thanks for the quick response to my comment. I kinda liked it more when I had talked myself out of believing 3 & 4...

June 18, 2010 10:14:00 PM EDT

GOP Defends BP! WTF? Rep. Joe Barton Apologizes To Hayward

I was out for most of the day today came back to watch Tweety in an understandable lather over Rep. "Texas" Joe Barton, ranking member of the Energy and Commerce Committee actually apologizing to BP CEO Tony Hayward, saying he was embarrassed by the "shakedown" those poor multi-millionaire criminals had to endure at the White House yesterday.

No, really. He apologized. He said he was "ashamed."

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

What is with this knee-jerk reaction of the Republican Party to steer 180° in the opposite direction of anything, ANYTHING this administration does as an automatic reaction? And to defend one of the most vile, corrupt oil companies in the process as these hearings continue to reveal!  Does Barton and his ilk think it's actually a good idea to try and win votes purely on Obama hate regardless of the issue? Calling BP's $20 billion escrow account for claims by thousands who've lost their livelihood due to the disaster a "shakedown"? Michele "Crazy Eyes" Bachmann calling it a "redistribution of wealth"?

Keep it up, Republicans.

Tragic

From The Guardian:

Thoughts On The First Oval Office Address

After watching the President's address on the Gulf disaster, I was a little surprised to hear the disappointed reaction and frustration of the talking heads. And I don't mean Fox News; they will do whatever it takes to tamp down anything positive about Obama. I mean the supposed Obama Channel, MSNBC.

While this disaster could have been capitalized into a JKF style, mission to the moon moment in terms of turning our country towards clean energy, a moment that in my opinion was disappointingly missed, I realized half way through the speech, that what I was hearing wasn't directed at me. It wasn't directed at the political junkies and cable news addicts of our country. It was directed at the other 300 million people of this country. People who's sole interaction with news is about 30 minutes of a local newscast, perhaps two or three of those minutes directed at the Gulf crisis. And in that sense, I feel it was a "damned if you do, damned if you don't" situation for the President.

MSNBC talking heads Chris Matthews and Keith Olbermann ripped into President Obama for not being more specific in his "battle plan" for the Gulf. But if he had gone into greater detail, my guess would be that the criticism would have been that he's too professorial or too wonky. Had he revealed a plan to take BP into temporary receivership, as former Secretary of Labor Robert Reich has recently suggested, cries of "SOCIALISM!" would have drowned out all other points of his speech.

But what did we really want him to say? That BP is going to pay for everything? He said that.

...But make no mistake: we will fight this spill with everything we’ve got for as long it takes. We will make BP pay for the damage their company has caused. And we will do whatever’s necessary to help the Gulf Coast and its people recover from this tragedy.

Did we need him to mention something about prosecutions for possible crimes? Attorney General Eric Holder's already on it. Do we want a tough talker to make us feel better and then moan when he promises something that he knows (and we know) can't be delivered? Or do we want a smart pragmatist  who doesn't always shoot from the hip and later regret it?

He spoke to us like adults and didn't sugar coat the current situation.

...Because there has never been a leak of this size at this depth, stopping it has tested the limits of human technology. 

...The millions of gallons of oil that have spilled into the Gulf of Mexico are more like an epidemic, one that we will be fighting for months and even years. 

...But we have to recognize that despite our best efforts, oil has already caused damage to our coastline and its wildlife. And sadly, no matter how effective our response becomes, there will be more oil and more damage before this siege is done.

It would have been a fist pumping moment for liberals and progressives to see a tough talking, no shit taking, mad as hell and not gonna take it anymore Barack Obama beating the crap out of BP, their CEO Tony Hayward, and small government hypocrites who are now crying the government isn't doing enough. But that's not who Barack Obama is, and I wonder why we keep getting surprised when he doesn't do something the way we'd like him to do it.  And when he does say something out of the ordinary in a rare display of frustration or anger, he's vilified for it as well.

But I am also tired of the impatience (I'm guilty of it myself sometimes) of expecting the last 8 years of a clusterfuck government and 30 years of deregulation and Reaganomics to be cleaned up in 18 months.

If Obama turns out to be a one term president, it will be because we have become a country of instant gratification and not figured out that that's not how the world works. You'd think that after the "wanted dead or alive" failed promises of the past decade, we'd know better.

Behold The Alternative!

The next time someone says how disappointed they are in President Obama for his "lack of leadership," I would suggest a little dose of reality and remind them of how things could have been...



... and then punch them in the throat.

Petraeus Faints at McCain's Stupidity

Testifying before the Senate Armed Services Committee, General David Petraeus apparently passed out after answering questions asked by Senator John "Loser 2008" McCain. According to witnesses, it wasn't so much the line of questioning about the war in Afghanistan that caused the commander of the U.S. Central Command to faint, but rather the stupidity of McCain's hackneyed "path to success/arbitrary deadline" talking points that he's been regurgitating since his failed presidential campaign over 18 months ago.

Watch:


Several witnesses close to Petraeus heard him mumble of McCain's statements, "Oh, not this bullshit again" just before passing out. A source close to Petraeus noted that the General would do anything in order to get McCain to "shut the fuck up." "He's seen some pretty fucked up shit in his years of war, but anything McCain says is just too much to bear" said the source.

When McCain stopped his diatribe in mid-sentence, ranking Chairman Senator Carl Levin assumed that McCain has shit his diaper again as he had in so many other prior occasions and called for the Capitol Cleaning Crew. An amendment to replace McCain's chair on the bench with a toilet has been stalled due to the latest Republican filibuster on financial reform.

Just Let Nature Take Care Of It

Here's a picture taken from a NASA satellite of the Gulf coast.  That bright sheen you see is the oil reflecting the sun back into space, as opposed to the waves diffusing the light as it does in the lower left corner of the photo.

Funny how I haven't heard the "let it biodegrade naturally" crowd lately. I suppose they've crawled back under their rocks.

Thou Shalt Not Make For Yourself a Carved Image...

Touchdown Jesus was destroyed by lightning yesterday!   How... ironic.



Does this mean the Bengals and Browns have no shot this year?

Vuvuzela: Tool of the Devil

FIFA World Cup. (FEE-FA? FIE-FA? Eh, who gives a shit?)

Did you ever watch a Duke basketball game and notice the fans jumping up and down and humming incessantly? For the entire. Fucking. Game? I don't know about you, but I kind of find it annoying... as I do most Duke fans.

Well, let's take it up a notch, shall we? Or maybe a thousand notches. If you watch any of the games during this year's World Cup, you'll notice a long, constant low drone echoing in the background. This is created by the dreaded "vuvuzela." Or perhaps 50,000 vuvuzelas. It's enough to curve your spine and make your eyes explode out of their sockets.



(Thank you, Andy for bringing this to my attention and ruining my World Cup... HAHAAHAAHAAA! Couldn't even keep a straight face for that last line!)

Must Reads

Eric Boehlert: Why Does The Los Angeles Times Hate Obama?

Bob Cesca: Sarah Palin Demands Hardball Regulations and a Takeover of BP

Eric Deggans: Obama and the Oil Spill: Can We Tolerate a President Who Refuses to Make Us Feel Better?

Michael Winship: The Supreme Court Says NO to the People - Again

Sasha Abramsky: Where the Tea Party Runs Out of Juice

President Obama's Weekly Address - June 12, 2010

Fair Pay for Doctors

About the Helen Thomas Thing

Helen Thomas retired on Monday. The 89 year old White House Correspondent, who has covered every sitting President since Eisenhower, decided to call it quits (or perhaps was forced to) after making a stupid remark. About Israel.

Q: Any comments on Israel? They're arresting everybody today any comments on...

Thomas: Tell them to get the hell out of Palestine.

Q: Ooh. Any better comments on Israel?

Thomas: Remember, these people are occupied. And it's their land. Not German's [sic] and not Poland's.

Q: So where should they go? What should they do?

Thomas: They should go home.

Q: Where's home?

Thomas: Poland.

Q: SO you're saying Jews should ...

Thomas: Germany.

Q: ...go back to Poland and Germany?

Thomas: And America and everywhere else.

Now, I'm not defending Thomas' statement. Not all of it anyway. As a reporter in her position, Helen Thomas should have known better. She should have chosen her words more carefully because she probably knows that being an opinion journalist in the White House Press Corps is just as much a political position as it is a journalistic one - or at least that's what it's become.

She quickly apologized, but it wasn't enough. The cat was out of the bag and now her amazing career is over and she'll be remembered not for the decades of service, not for asking the tough questions that others dare not ask, and not for being the first female in the man's world of the White House Correspondents Association. She'll be remembered for a dumb statement that shouldn't have been made by an impartial reporter.

Unfortunately, Thomas was marginalized long before her comments. When once she was always the first called on during a presidential news conference as a sign of respect, that tradition quickly ground to a halt during the previous administration after repeatedly being called to task by Thomas. They cast her off to the side, tried to make her a laughingstock and the rest of the Press Corps, instead of watching their dean's back, went right along with it. No respect.

But back to the statement. "Back to Poland. And Germany. And America and everywhere else" was her overstatement. But what is wrong with having the opinion that the Israeli settlements in Gaza are only a deterrent to peace between Israel and Palestine? Why does everyone walk on eggshells when it comes to the subject of the occupied territory in Gaza? Why the fear of, heaven forbid, insulting Jews? Are we to assume that everyone who doesn't agree with every choice Israel makes is automatically and anti-Semite?

Nevermind that they deny Palestinians basic human rights, close off street access thereby preventing access to doctors and hospitals, food and water. Anywhere else in the world this is considered outrageous. But in Israel? Well, you know. It's Israel. We can't upset them. Had any other country attacked a flotilla of relief supplies to Gaza, boarding a ship and killing 11 in the process, it would be considered an act of piracy. But hey, it's Israel so they get a pass, right, America?

Former president Jimmy Carter dared to write an in depth book on the conflict and was torn to shreds for it. A man that helped Israel and Egypt reach a peace agreement apparently does not have a clue about what's happening in Gaza and therefore hates Jews. That has to be the only reason, right? Why is he excoriated? For speaking what he believes to be the truth? And to me it seems he's a lot closer to the truth than, "Israel can do no wrong."

So what's the deal? Is it because the Christian fundamentalists need the Jews in Israel around for the rapture? Because that's the only reason for their unwavering support. So Helen Thomas said what was on her mind and was "retired." If only we applied the same standards to every kook who spews anti-Muslim hate speech, or for Obama to go back to Kenya. When scumbags like Rush Limbaugh, Glenn Beck and Michael Savage are forced to "retire" then I'll recognize the equilvalency.

How Crazy Is She?!

Rush Limbaugh Marries Kate Rogers



And Elton John is good enough to sing at Rush's wedding, even though Rush doesn't think Elton John deserves the ability to get married himself. It truly is a topsy-turvy world we're living in.

Must Reads

driftglass: I See Dead Pundits

Steve Benen: WITHOUT PRECEDENT -- EXCEPT FOR ALL THE OTHER TIMES....

The Rude Pundit: A Brief Note Regarding Sarah Palin's Opinion of Environmentalists

John Collins Rudolf & Leslie Kaufman: Pelicans, Back From Brink of Extinction, Face Oil Threat

President Obama's Weekly Address - June 5, 2010

Speaking from Louisiana on the Oil Spill

Quote of the Day

Bobo full-well knows that it is he and his fellow Reaganite travelers who are responsible for smashing the American public square, bunker-busting its rubble and then pissing on its ashes. And now, from Iraq to Wall Street and from a mountain of debt to a Gulf full of oil -- in this tragic, imploding world he and his fellow Reaganite travelers spent thirty years carefully crafting-- the skies are growing positively black from horizon to Deepwater Horizon with the flocks of Conservative chickens that are coming home to roost.

~ Driftglass on David Brooks' latest column... and Brooks in general.

So... Uh... Wha'd I Miss?

Looks like it's been a very interesting week since my baby was born. Between the initial shell shock of fatherhood and setting up the house we just bought and moved into just 2½ weeks ago (including the nursery finished late last night), I haven't had much time to blog or read or watch the talking heads much. So let's take a gander at what's happened just this past week or so in no particular order.

The initial steps of repealing Don't Ask Don't Tell have begun. Gary Coleman died. The BP top kill theory failed while they drank more milkshake. American Idol completed another season with another undeserving winner. BP CEO Tony Hayward wants his "life back." Dennis Hopper died. Israel attacked an aid flotilla headed to Gaza and the US once again remained silent. (Imagine if it were any other country who committed this act?) BP's Hayward thinks the sickened workers cleaning up the mess are more likely the victims of food poisoning rather than the toxic slurry BP is pumping in to the Gulf to disperse the oil. Attorney General Eric Holder launched criminal and civil investigations into the Gulf of Mexico oil spill. Former Dick Cheney press secretary Ann Kolton has been hired by BP for damage control purposes after realizing that Tony Hayward can't get his oil soaked boot out of his mouth.

I can only imagine what the next week will bring.